Set-Aside Alert exclusive research:

‘The Slow Season’: Q1 set-aside awards are lowest of the year

Consistent pattern seen for 12 of the last 13 years

      Small federal contractors often have noticed an apparent slowdown in procurement activity in October, November and December, following the end of the federal fiscal year on Sept. 30.

      Federal data shows that perception is accurate, at least for small business set-asides. Set-Aside Alert’s review of all set-aside awards by quarter showed that the Q1 awards were the lowest of the year in nearly all years in a consistent trend for the last 13 years. Only in one year, fiscal 2013, were Q1 awards second-lowest, and the Q2 awards lowest.

      The difference in average awards between Q1 and all other quarters was significant. Q1 set-aside awards comprised an average of just 15.3% of all set-aside awards during fiscal 2008 to 2020.

      Set-aside awards for the rest of the year averaged 28.2% per quarter, nearly twice as much as the first-quarter percentage, during the 13-year period.

      Surprisingly, the pattern appears to be unique to set-asides. The data for all federal contract awards shows much less consistency.

      For all contracts, Q1 awards were lowest for six years during the 13-year period, in fiscal years 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018. In 7 other years, the lowest levels varied between Q2 and Q3. Congressional appropriations delays and government shutdowns are likely factors in the variability.

     As reported in previous editions of Set-Aside Alert, the fourth quarter consistently has much higher levels and percentages of set-aside awards and of all awards. However, we combined Q2, Q3 and Q4 data to obtain an average quarterly level for all quarters other than Q1.

      Here is the set-aside data:

      Here are the percentages of set-aside awards in Q1, along with the average percentage of set-aside awards in each of Q2, Q3 and Q4.

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