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Federal Market Intelligence for Small Business |
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Has the autumn slowdown arrived?Set-Aside Alert exclusive research shows small business federal contracting activity hits annual lull from October to DecemberFall typically is not golden for small federal contractors. As autumn leaves fall, so does the level of activity in small business federal contracting. The month of November was the slowest month for small business federal contract activity in four of the last five fiscal years, according to new research by Set-Aside Alert. The months of October and December were just barely more active than November in those fiscal years. December was slowest in fiscal 2013. With the federal fiscal year starting on Oct. 1, the autumn months of October, November and December together ranked as the most sluggish of the year for all five fiscal years reviewed. The noticeable trend each year was for a work slowdown from October through December, with contract actions picking up from January to June and peaking in July, August and September at the fiscal year’s end. At the same time, there is a possibility that this fall season may buck the trend: there was an unusual increase in activity for October this year. The activity for small business federal contracting observed for October 2014 was 19% higher than for October 2013, as of data collected on Oct. 30, 2014. If that pattern continues, this year’s slump may be milder than in previous years. Even so, overall, there was a slump in small business contract actions in October, November and December in each of the last five fiscal years. Set-Aside Alert examined small business federal contracting activity for each month for fiscal 2010 to the present on the FBO.gov federal website. We measured activity by the number of contract actions involving small businesses (including 8(a), HUBZone, women-owned, economically-disadvantaged women-owned and service-disabled veteran-owned) recorded on FBO.gov in those months. The contract actions comprised solicitations, presolicitations, sources-sought notices and award notices. For the most recent fiscal year, the low was 3,277 contract actions in November 2013 vs. a high of 9,793 contract actions in August 2014. For fiscal 2014 on the whole, there were 3,589 actions in October; 3,277 in November; 3,317 in December; 3,818 in January; 4,247 in February; 5,161 in March; 5,991 in April; 6,133 in May; 6,624 in June; 8,093 in July; 9,793 in August; and 9,760 in September. Activity in each of the three autumn months was about 51% of the activity in the average month and only about 35% of the activity in the peak month. October, November and December together accounted for only 13% of the activity of the fiscal 2014 year. By contrast, July, August and September accounted for 35%. Similar patterns were observed in each of the five fiscal years. The lows for each fiscal year were 3,534 in December for fiscal 2013; 2,330 in November for fiscal 2012; 2,868 in November for fiscal 2011; and 3,092 in November for fiscal 2010. This year’s figures suggest the trend may be changing. Initial figures for activity in October 2014 appear to show a big increase, with 4,283 contract actions reported as of Oct. 30. Set-Aside Alert will continue to monitor the data to see if the trend continues to shift. Meanwhile, small business contracting specialists suggest that the autumn slump may be a good time of year to refresh technologies and training, update marketing plans, network with officials and develop long-term business plans.
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