Column: Put acquisition forecasts in your federal sales toolkit

by Tom Johnson, publisher, Set-Aside Alert

A readily-available market intelligence tool is often overlooked by small business owners. Every federal department and major agency is required to publish an acquisition plan or forecast for the fiscal year. These plans are important tools for anticipating future sales opportunities.

Section 501

In 1988, Section 501 of P.L. 100-656 amended Section 8(a)12 of the Small Business Act to state: “Each executive agency… shall prepare a forecast of expected contract opportunities or classes of contract opportunities for the next and succeeding fiscal years that small business concerns…are capable of performing. Such forecast shall be periodically revised during such year.”

The law further states that the forecast must specify the approximate number of contracts available, individually and by class; the dollar value of the opportunities available, individually and by class; the anticipated fiscal year quarter in which the solicitations will occur; and the activity responsible for administration of the contracts.

The head of each executive agency must furnish the forecasts to the administrator and to the director of the agency’s Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization (OSDBU) and must make the forecasts available to small business owners.

Agency forecasts

The net result is that agencies are telling you what and when they plan to buy.

Agencies handle this responsibility in various ways. Many make a point of getting the forecast posted right at the beginning of the fiscal year (Oct. 1). More and more agencies also are updating their forecasts throughout the year. This is important, as there are many factors that can affect the timing of the actual buys.

Small business owners often overlook a readily-available market intelligence tool---federal agency procurement forecasts.

Timing of solicitations

The forecast may indicate a purchase is expected in the first quarter, but frequently the actual release date is affected by such factors as the agencies’ completion of market research, program offices preparing and committing to relevant statements of work, Congress approving appropriations and the White House releasing funds on a timely basis.

Since the published solicitation release dates in the forecasts often slip due to those factors, many small business executives have written off the forecasts as a useful tool.

How to use forecasts

However, if a project or a purchase has made it into the forecast, you can assume it is high on the agency’s priority list. If it’s a good opportunity for you, you can use the delay to improve your chances of winning by reaching out to the program manager and contracting personnel to gain added knowledge.

Where to find forecasts

Forecasts are sometimes hard to find. They go by various names--such as acquisition plan, advanced acquisition planning document, forecast of contract opportunities, or long-range acquisition estimate.

The best place to find agency acquisition forecasts is in the “Acquisition” or “Procurement” sections of their websites. Some agencies may post the plan or a link to it from their OSDBU or Office of Small Business Programs website page. Occasionally the plans are posted at the bureau or sub-agency level, requiring a bit more research to locate them.

Forecast formats

Depending on the agency, you will find that the acquisition plans may be posted as spreadsheets, or in some cases, as portable document format (pdf) files or other paper-oriented documents. More and more agencies are now posting the plans in searchable database formats with sorting and other tools available to help you narrow your search, perhaps by North American Industry Classification System code (NAICS) or location.

Forecast information

Take advantage of the contact information provided as part of the forecast. Contact information will connect you with a program manager, contracting official or small business specialist. As long as the solicitation is still in development and has not been posted to FBO.gov, the contact person should be willing to provide status information and respond to your questions. This is also the time to request that the opportunity be set-aside for your category, and for you to provide assurance, if you can, that two or more small businesses are capable and responsible and will bid on the project.

Conclusion

Don’t ignore acquisition forecast plans. They may not be 100% correct but they are real insight into what the agency intends to procure. Use them for what they are-–forecasts–-and recognize that they change with the times.

Tom Johnson is publisher of Set-Aside Alert. He can be reached at tjohnson@setasidealert.com.

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Column: Put acquisition forecasts in your federal sales toolkit

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